The traditional firewall between Europe’s center-right and the hard-right fringe hasn’t just cracked. It has been dismantled from the inside. At the heart of this transformation sits the European People’s Party (EPP), the largest political family in the European Parliament and the primary engine of EU policymaking. For decades, the EPP functioned as the continent’s stabilizing force, a pro-integrationist bulwark that kept radicalism at bay. Today, that same group is actively borrowing the rhetoric and the policy playbook of the very forces it once pledged to contain.
This is not a sudden pivot. It is a calculated survival strategy born of a simple, brutal realization: the old centrist coalition is no longer enough to hold power. By aligning with hard-right elements on the single most explosive issue in European politics—migration—the EPP is attempting to cannibalize the far right’s support. Yet, in doing so, they are fundamentally altering the legislative chemistry of Brussels. The recent pushes for stricter border controls, offshore processing centers, and "innovative solutions" for deportation are not just policy shifts. They are the white flags of a political center that has decided it can no longer win the argument on its own terms.
The Architecture of a New Majority
The mechanics of power in Brussels used to be predictable. The EPP and the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) would form a "Grand Coalition," occasionally pulling in the Liberals to pass major legislation. This kept the edges of the political spectrum—the far left and the nationalist right—in a state of permanent opposition. That era is dead.
We are seeing the emergence of a "ghost coalition." On paper, the EPP still works with the Socialists to confirm Commission leadership. In practice, when it comes to the nitty-gritty of migration law, the EPP is increasingly looking to the right. This includes Giorgia Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and, more controversially, elements of the Patriots for Europe group.
This isn't just about passing a few laws. It’s about who sets the agenda. When the EPP adopts the language of "fortress Europe," it validates the talking points of Viktor Orbán and Marine Le Pen. It signals to the European electorate that the hard right was correct all along. This creates a feedback loop where the political center moves further right to keep up with an electorate it has helped radicalize.
Why the Migration Pact Failed Before It Began
The much-vaunted New Pact on Migration and Asylum was supposed to be the definitive answer to the 2015 crisis. It was marketed as a balance between "solidarity" and "responsibility." However, even before the ink was dry, the EPP began pushing for even more restrictive measures.
The move toward "return hubs"—third-party countries where rejected asylum seekers can be sent—is the clearest evidence of this shift. This concept was once a fringe idea, dismissed by human rights lawyers and EU bureaucrats as legally impossible and morally bankrupt. Now, it is a central pillar of the EPP’s platform.
The shift happened because the EPP’s internal center of gravity moved. National parties within the group, particularly in Germany, Greece, and Poland, are under immense pressure from domestic populist challengers. For the German CDU, the rise of the AfD is an existential threat. For the Greek New Democracy, the pressure of being a frontline state is unbearable. These parties aren't interested in the abstract ideals of European solidarity anymore. They want results that they can show to an angry voter base, and they want them now.
The Meloni Factor and the Normalization of the Fringe
Giorgia Meloni has proven to be the most effective diplomat the European hard right has ever produced. Instead of attacking the Brussels machine from the outside, she has worked her way into its inner sanctum. Her relationship with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen—the EPP’s most prominent figure—is the axis upon which this new European reality turns.
Meloni provided a bridge. She demonstrated that a party with post-fascist roots could be "constructive" on the European stage, provided the EU moved toward her position on borders. The EPP took the bait. By treating Meloni as a partner rather than a pariah, the EPP has effectively ended the cordon sanitaire.
The Cost of Connivence
The fallout from this partnership is visible in the legislative gridlock within the European Parliament. The traditional partners of the EPP—the Greens and the Socialists—feel betrayed. They argue that the EPP is playing a dangerous game, one where they trade long-term institutional stability for short-term electoral gains.
- Policy Drift: Legislation is becoming increasingly punitive, focusing almost entirely on deterrence and returns rather than integration or legal pathways.
- Institutional Erosion: The reliance on ad-hoc right-wing majorities undermines the stability of the Commission’s "Grand Coalition" mandate.
- Legal Risk: Many of the new "innovative" migration solutions are likely to be struck down by the European Court of Human Rights, leading to a cycle of political frustration and further radicalization.
The EPP’s defenders argue that they are simply being pragmatic. They claim that if the center doesn’t take a hard line on migration, the voters will hand the keys to the continent to the actual extremists. It’s the "better us than them" defense. But this assumes that there is a meaningful difference between a hard-right policy enacted by a radical party and the same policy enacted by a centrist one. For the migrant at the border or the judge in the courtroom, that distinction is increasingly hard to find.
The German Influence and the Looming Election
Everything in Brussels eventually circles back to Berlin. The German CDU, a dominant force within the EPP, is currently in opposition and swinging sharply to the right on social issues. Their leader, Friedrich Merz, knows that his path back to the Chancellery requires neutralizing the AfD.
This domestic struggle is being exported to the European level. When the CDU demands tougher EU border controls, the entire EPP apparatus moves to accommodate them. The German influence ensures that this rightward shift isn't just a temporary fluke—it is the new strategic baseline for the foreseeable future.
The upcoming national elections across Europe will only accelerate this trend. In France, the threat of a National Rally victory hangs over every discussion. In the Netherlands, the presence of Geert Wilders’ party in government has already shifted the Dutch position in Brussels. The EPP is reading the room, and the room is demanding walls.
The Disappearing Middle Ground
The problem with chasing the far right is that the finish line keeps moving. Every time the EPP adopts a hardline position, the fringe moves even further out to maintain its "anti-establishment" credentials. This leaves the EPP in a permanent state of catch-up, constantly eroding its own moderate identity to appease a demographic that will likely never be satisfied.
What remains is a hollowed-out center. The intellectuals and the "old guard" of the EPP, who believed in a Christian Democratic vision of a welcoming, united Europe, are being sidelined by a new generation of political operatives who view migration solely through the lens of border security.
The "connivence" that critics in Brussels talk about isn't a secret conspiracy. It’s an open, desperate attempt to hold onto power in a continent that is losing its appetite for the middle ground. The EPP hasn't been conquered by the far right; it has simply looked at the polling data and decided that imitation is the only way to avoid obsolescence.
The real test will come when these new, hardline policies inevitably fail to stop the flow of people. When the "return hubs" are full and the borders are still being crossed, the EPP will have to decide if it wants to double down on the radical path or admit that the hard right's solutions are as simplistic as they are cruel. By then, however, the center might be too far gone to find its way back.
If you want to understand where Europe is headed, stop looking at the fringe and start looking at the people who used to represent the middle. They are the ones holding the map, and they have already turned the page. Check the legislative amendments on the next migration file; you won't need a magnifying glass to see the fingerprints of the far right on the EPP's stationary.
