The global security net isn't just fraying. It completely snapped. When the New START treaty quietly expired in February 2026, the final legal guardrail keeping a lid on the world's two largest nuclear arsenals dissolved into history. For the first time in decades, Washington and Moscow face each other with absolutely zero treaty restrictions on how many nuclear warheads they can deploy.
Against this volatile backdrop, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dropped a heavy dose of cold realism at the Primakov Readings forum in Moscow. His message wasn't subtle. Peskov stated flatly that apart from nuclear deterrence, "there is nothing left in the world" to prevent an all-out global war.
You can call it reckless signaling or cynical posturing. But if you strip away the political theater, the Kremlin is pointing directly at a terrifying truth. The institutional frameworks designed to keep the peace are failing, leaving atomic fear as the sole remaining check on great-power conflict.
The Cold Logic of an Unraveled Order
For years, international agreements kept the nuclear balance predictable. The 2010 New START treaty limited both the US and Russia to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads each. Now, those limits are gone. Decades of steady arms control have officially been replaced by a quiet, multi-country scramble to build up and modernize strike capabilities.
The erosion of these rules changes the math for every major capital. While the United Nations and the UN Security Council find themselves increasingly deadlocked and unable to dictate global stability, raw military power has filled the vacuum.
Strategic Nuclear Warhead Deployments (Historical New START Limit)
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Russia: 1,550 [No longer legally binding as of Feb 2026]
United States: 1,550 [No longer legally binding as of Feb 2026]
This structural collapse explains why Moscow is doubling down on its atomic rhetoric. When the rules disappear, deterrence becomes the only language left that everyone understands. It is a return to the purest, most unstable form of Mutually Assured Destruction.
The Race for the Next Mutually Assured Destruction
The nuclear equation isn't just a two-player game anymore, and that is exactly why replacing the old treaties has proven impossible. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly pushed for any future nuclear pact to include China. It makes sense from a Western perspective, given Beijing's rapid expansion of its own silo fields and warhead production.
But Beijing has consistently rejected the pressure to join these talks. Why would they lock themselves into limits while still trailing the massive stockpiles of the big two?
Moscow has used China's absence to dig in its own heels. The Kremlin's position is clear: if Washington wants China at the table, then Britain and France must bring their nuclear arsenals to the negotiation as well. It is a classic geopolitical logjam. Nobody wants to freeze their capabilities while their neighbors keep building.
To complicate things further, the hardware itself is changing. Peskov noted that rapid scientific progress means we will soon see advanced, non-nuclear weapon systems that can match the sheer destructive capacity of traditional atomic bombs. Think hypersonic conventional gliders, autonomous drone swarms, and high-energy kinetic systems.
These emerging technologies introduce a massive gray area. If a conventional missile travels at Mach 10 and can level a command bunker just as cleanly as a tactical nuke, how do you deter it? The line between conventional defense and existential threat is blurring fast.
What This Means for Global Stability
Relying entirely on nuclear deterrence to keep the peace is an incredibly high-stakes gamble. It relies on the assumption that every leader will always behave as a rational actor. History tells us that is a dangerous bet to make.
While nuclear weapons might prevent the US, Russia, and China from launching direct, catastrophic strikes at one another, they do absolutely nothing to stop regional flashpoints from burning out of control. We are seeing this play out daily. Local conflicts and proxy fights are actually intensifying because nations feel protected under their nuclear umbrellas, leading to riskier behavior on the ground.
The threat of miscalculation is higher now than at any point since the Cold War. Without treaty-mandated inspections, satellite verification, and dedicated hotlines, military planners have to operate on guesswork. When you are guessing about your opponent's nuclear posture, you always assume the worst-case scenario. That is how minor diplomatic blunders spiral into actual military escalations.
To navigate this landscape safely, defense analysts and international observers suggest focusing on three immediate priority areas.
- Establish Military-to-Military Communication: Even without a formal treaty, Washington and Moscow must maintain direct, high-level military channels to prevent technical glitches or radar anomalies from being mistaken for a first strike.
- Define Red Lines Clearly: Ambiguity breeds catastrophe. Nuclear powers must communicate their absolute boundaries regarding drone strikes, cyber warfare, and conventional precision weapons targeting strategic infrastructure.
- Pursue Targeted Regional De-escalation: Because global frameworks have broken down, stability must be built from the ground up by managing localized flashpoints before they draw in competing nuclear-armed backers.
Relying on the sheer horror of atomic weapons to prevent a world war is a brutal, fragile strategy. But until major powers find a way to build a credible alternative, that cold wall of deterrence is the only thing keeping the peace.
Moscow International Forum Insight
This report from the foreign policy forum outlines the Kremlin's stance on why the expiration of arms control treaties leaves nuclear deterrence as the primary mechanism preventing major conflict.
