Realpolitik is a dirty business. If you want proof, look no further than the preparations for the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara on July 7 and 8.
Five years ago, Western leaders actually pretended to care about democratic backsliding in Turkey. Back in 2021, ten Western ambassadors signed a joint letter demanding the release of political prisoner Osman Kavala. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan went ballistic, threatening to expel the envoys and sparking a massive diplomatic standoff. The West blinked, issued mild retractions, and promised to watch their step. You might also find this similar article interesting: Why the Arrest of Shaukat Nawaz Mir Changes Everything in PoJK.
They kept that promise. Today, the silence is deafening.
While Turkey locks up opposition leaders and bans independent journalists from even entering the summit, NATO allies are busy looking the other way. Why? Because a brutal war is raging on Europe’s eastern flank, and Turkey has NATO’s second-largest military, massive drone export pipelines, and complete control over who enters the Black Sea. The alliance has made a cold, hard calculation: human rights are a luxury; security is a necessity. As reported in latest reports by BBC News, the results are worth noting.
The Price of Admission into the Ankara Summit
If you think NATO stands for a shared commitment to democracy and individual liberty, the reality on the ground will disappoint you. Ankara is currently executing an unprecedented legal onslaught against the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Erdogan’s most formidable political rival and a prospective presidential candidate, faces prison time under highly controversial judicial maneuvers.
Yet, Western diplomats planning the summit have quietly confirmed that no one is going to bring this up to Erdogan's face.
The domestic crackdown isn't just targeting politicians. It's happening to the very people trying to document the summit. Dozens of local independent journalists from outlets like Cumhuriyet, Sozcu, and Medyascope applied for media credentials to cover the NATO meetings. They were systematically denied.
When pressed on why independent press is being locked out, NATO spokesperson Allison Hart stated that the alliance relies on the host nation for guidance regarding journalist access. Basically, NATO let Erdogan curate his own press corps.
To make matters worse, Turkish authorities carried out massive anti-terror raids just days ago, detaining 225 people and formally arresting 103, including prominent LGBTQ+ rights activists and environmental volunteers. Human Rights Watch explicitly condemned the sweep as a ruthless attempt to clear the streets of dissent before world leaders arrive.
Drones Over Democracy
This strategic muteness didn’t happen overnight. The real shift solidified when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Europe suddenly woke up to its own vulnerability, and Turkey’s geostrategic value skyrocketed.
Ankara knows it is indispensable to Western defense. You can't protect NATO's southeastern flank without Turkish radar systems, airbases, and troops. Beyond geography, Turkey has transformed itself into an independent defense powerhouse. Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler recently noted that the country is aggressively ramping up domestic military production to meet NATO capability targets by 2029, even eyeing a target of 5% of GDP spent on defense by 2035.
"Western allies have given up on values to an extent and prefer a transactional relationship, knowing that Turkey is indispensable for the defense of Europe." — Karol Wasilewski, Center for Eastern Studies.
Every major Western capital now views Turkey through a purely transactional lens. NATO Chief Mark Rutte is expected to announce tens of billions of dollars in new defense deals during the Ankara summit. Under the shadow of a second Donald Trump administration in the United States, European nations are terrified of fracturing the alliance. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has already berated European allies for focusing too much on social issues instead of tanks and fighter jets. In that climate, nobody wants to pick a fight with Erdogan over locked-up mayors or banned reporters.
The Dangerous Cost of Saying Nothing
Former U.S. Ambassador to Ankara David Satterfield argues that this public silence is a mistake. He points out that it isolates Turkey's domestic opposition and sends a clear message to the Turkish public that the West doesn't care about their freedoms. Satterfield insists that raising democratic concerns doesn't have to break transactional defense ties.
But the current crop of Western leaders clearly disagrees. They believe public finger-wagging does nothing to stop Erdogan's authoritarian slide anyway, so they claim to raise these issues in private.
It's a convenient excuse. Private complaints don't cost political capital, and they don't threaten multi-billion-dollar drone contracts.
If you want to understand the modern geopolitical landscape, you have to watch what leaders ignore, not just what they celebrate. NATO will stand on the stage in Ankara this July, flash bright smiles for the cameras, and praise alliance unity. Just don't expect them to mention the empty chairs in the press room or the politicians sitting in Turkish jail cells.
To understand how global security actually works today, you need to look past the official summit communiqués. Track the concrete defense contracts and hardware sales coming out of the Ankara meeting rather than the vague speeches about shared values. Watch how the European main political bodies handle Turkey's opposition figures in the weeks following the summit; their actions will show you exactly how much leverage the West has truly surrendered.
