Western capitals are currently running a predictable, hollow script. A dual national is arrested in Tehran, accused of espionage, and eventually executed. The Swedish government expresses "outrage." The EU issues a sternly worded statement about "human rights." Human rights organizations call for "accountability."
It is a performance. It is also a failure.
If you believe these executions are merely about domestic Iranian law or even "justice" in a Middle Eastern context, you are missing the structural reality of modern geopolitics. These are not judicial acts. They are market transactions. Until the West admits that it has inadvertently built a thriving market for human life, these deaths will continue with rhythmic certainty.
The Myth of the Innocent Bystander
The standard narrative paints victims like Habib Chaab or Ahmadreza Djalali as purely random targets or simple political dissidents. This simplifies a brutal reality. Iran operates on a doctrine of "asymmetric deterrence." When the West squeezes Tehran with sanctions or arrests Iranian operatives on European soil—think of the Hamid Noury case in Sweden—Iran responds with the only high-value currency it can easily manufacture: the lives of dual citizens.
The "lazy consensus" suggests that better diplomacy or more "pressure" could have saved these individuals. That is a lie. In the world of high-stakes intelligence, "pressure" is exactly what triggers the hangman's noose.
When Sweden sentenced Hamid Noury to life imprisonment for his role in the 1988 mass executions, they effectively signed the death warrant for Swedish-Iranian dual nationals held in Evin Prison. This isn't a defense of Iran's brutality; it is a cold assessment of their operational logic. If you take one of ours, we kill one of yours. It is a primitive, effective balance of terror that the West refuses to acknowledge because doing so would mean admitting that our legal victories come with a human cost we are unwilling to pay.
Why Statements of Outrage Are Counterproductive
Every time a Western foreign ministry "condemns in the strongest possible terms," they are actually increasing the value of the next hostage.
Outrage is a metric of success for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). It proves that the captive is a "high-interest" asset. If the West reacted to these executions with total silence and a quiet, brutal escalation of cyber-attacks or targeted financial seizures, the incentive structure would shift. Instead, we provide the IRGC with the global stage they crave. We turn a local execution into a global crisis, which is exactly what a pariah state needs to feel relevant.
The Hostage Economy 101
- Acquisition: Arrest a dual national on vague security charges.
- Valuation: Monitor Western media and diplomatic channels to see how much the "home" country cares.
- Negotiation: Demand the release of frozen funds or convicted terrorists/spies in exchange for the prisoner.
- Liquidation: If the exchange fails or the home country pushes too hard legally, execute the prisoner to maintain the credibility of future threats.
I have seen various governments attempt to navigate this. They always fall into the same trap: they try to use "rule of law" arguments against a regime that views the law as a weapon of war. You cannot litigate your way out of a kidnapping.
The Swedish Mistake: Playing Fair in a Fixed Game
Sweden’s approach has been particularly disastrous. By attempting to maintain a "pure" judicial process for Iranian criminals like Noury while simultaneously begging for mercy for their own citizens, they created a massive leverage gap.
The Swedish government operates under the delusion that Tehran respects the independence of the Swedish judiciary. They don't. They see it as a choice. When the Swedish courts refused to trade Noury, the Iranian state viewed it as a hostile act of war, not an "independent legal outcome."
If you want to play in this arena, you have to be willing to get your hands dirty. The "unconventional advice" that no diplomat will tell you? If you arrest an Iranian operative, you don't just put them in a comfortable Nordic prison. You make it clear—privately and through backchannels—that any harm to your citizens will result in the immediate, "accidental" demise of their people in your custody.
Is that "holistic" or "civilized"? No. Is it the only language the IRGC understands? Absolutely.
The Dual-National Liability
We need to stop pretending that traveling to Iran as a dual citizen is a manageable risk. It is an act of extreme negligence.
Western governments have been too soft on this. They provide "travel advisories" that people ignore. A more honest approach would be to strip consular protection guarantees for those who voluntarily enter high-risk zones against explicit warnings.
The "People Also Ask" section of the internet is full of questions like "Is it safe for Iranians living in the West to visit family?" The honest, brutal answer is: No. You are a walking $6 billion check for the Iranian central bank. You are a get-out-of-jail-free card for a professional assassin. By going, you aren't just risking your life; you are compromising your adopted country's foreign policy.
The Cost of "Humanitarian" Deals
Every time a country like the U.S. or France manages to "negotiate" a release—usually involving the unfreezing of billions of dollars—they ensure that ten more people will be snatched off the streets of Tehran.
These deals are celebrated as "diplomatic breakthroughs." They are actually venture capital for state-sponsored kidnapping. We are funding the very infrastructure that kidnaps the next victim.
Verifiable Consequences of Ransom:
- 2016: The U.S. sends $400 million in cash to Iran. Within months, more dual nationals are detained.
- 2023: $6 billion is unfrozen for South Korean oil debts. The cycle of detention continues.
- The Noury-Djalali Parallel: The moment Noury’s conviction was upheld, Djalali’s execution risk moved to 100%.
The downside to my contrarian approach is obvious: people will die in the short term. If the West stops negotiating and stops paying, the current "stock" of hostages may be executed. That is a horrific reality. But the current "humane" policy ensures a perpetual, never-ending stream of executions for decades to come.
We are choosing to feed the beast one limb at a time rather than starving it and dealing with the immediate violence of its hunger.
Stop Calling It "Spying"
The competitor article likely spends a lot of time debating whether the accused was "actually" a spy. This is the ultimate distraction. In the Iranian judicial system, "espionage" is a placeholder term for "negotiable asset."
Whether the individual was a doctor, a journalist, or a civil servant is irrelevant. Their guilt is manufactured to fit the price tag. When we debate the "evidence," we are playing on Iran’s home field. We are pretending their court system is a legitimate venue for seeking truth.
It isn't. It’s a theater of the absurd where the script is written by the intelligence services. We must stop engaging with the "charges" as if they have merit. The only "charge" that matters is that the victim holds a passport that Tehran thinks it can trade for a favor.
The West needs to stop treating these executions as "human rights violations" and start treating them as "hostile state actions." You don't respond to a hostile state action with a press release from the Ministry of Culture. You respond with structural pain.
If a Swedish citizen is executed, every Iranian official’s asset in the EU should be seized within 24 hours. Not frozen. Seized. Every Iranian-linked business should be shuttered. Not "monitored." Closed.
Until the cost of the execution exceeds the value of the leverage gained, the hangings will continue. Everything else is just noise.
The next time you see a headline about an execution in Tehran, don't look at the victim. Look at the diplomat who failed to create a credible deterrent. Look at the government that thinks "outrage" is a strategy.
The blood isn't just on Tehran's hands; it's on the hands of every Western leader who keeps the hostage market open for business.
